Hockey.Kings.2008_Draft

So the draft is tonight.

Lots of speculation surrounding my beloved L.A. Kings. Tampa has already pretty well come out and said they're taking Stamkos with the number 1, but no one is quite sure who the Kings are looking at.

There are several schools of thought here, but they all pretty much boil down to...

1) Play it safe, possibly waste the 2nd overall pick and take Zach Bogosian or Drew Doughty?

2) Trade down a couple of slots and take Filatov?

3) Figure you're pretty well set up at the farm level for the immediate future and trade down a bunch (in a relatively shallow draft) and get what you can?

1 is a really boring option, but it's got the least likely chance of not paying off, which things being what the are in L.A., is why I think they should do it. By all accounts, Doughty and Bogosian are both blue-chip prospect defensemen that are as unlikely to be busts as anyone. Defensemen typically take longer to mature, but you've got an insurance policy in Jack Johnson that is already starting to pay off, so why not wait a couple of years for Doughty/ Bogosian to mature and learn the big game? Assuming they reach their potential along with Johnson, it'd be akin to having a couple of Prongers- good size, offensive upside, responsible play- on your team without all the dirty hits.

And for what it's worth, I'd pick Bogosian over Doughty. They're both great and very similar, but Bogo is from the U.S. and he ought to get on well with The Jack.

2 is the sexy option. Filatov has seen his stock rise a bunch the past year and he's starting to get mentioned in the same breath as some of the other recent Russian arrivals- Ovechkin, Malkin, and Kovalchuk.

I think it's unlikely that he'll make as big of an immediate impact as any of those guys, but it's possible he could be an Alexander Semin type who will take a little longer to mature but be a really solid player in a couple of years. This option isn't bad, but it does have a chance of missing and is somewhat unnecessary. For all of their flaws, one thing the Kings actually did do well last year was put the puck in the net. Scoring isn't a problem for this team, so adding somebody like Filatov isn't all that necessary when you keep in mind there are much more severe problems to be addressed- like defense and goaltending. However, if Mike Cammalleri does end up being traded this weekend, you can make more of a case for this line of thinking.

3 I think is a bad idea unless the Kings are being offered some solid prospect talent or young players in exchange for the number 2. This draft, according to most "experts" is a fairly shallow draft- there's a lot of talent in the first seven picks or so, then some decent talent down to the middle of the draft, but after 15 or so, it's all pretty relative. There's no point in trading the number 2 for multiple deeper picks unless you end up snaring multiple top 15 picks which probably won't happen.

The Kings still need to address holes in their team. This draft could go a long way towards doing that assuming Lombardi and Co. are smart about it.

Hockey.Penguins.Free_Agency

I said back at the trade deadline that I was a little unsure about Pittsburgh going into "win-now" mode with the Hossa trade where they gave up blue chip prospect Angelo Esposito.

(Forget my prediction about Feds not working out in Washington)

Now Ray Shero is doing the FA shuffle.

Being a Kings fan who is quite knowledgeable about the Pens, here's the major players and what I'd do with them. Take it for what it's worth.

1) Marian Hossa

Why you sign him: Big time, consistent offensive numbers.
Why you don't: Will be super expensive, already have a lot of scoring depth

Hossa stepped up big time in the post season netting 26 points. That's great, but you don't make these kinds of deals to sign the guy later, especially not when you know you've got to sign/ lock up half the damn team in a couple of months. Hossa was brought in to help Pitts win a Cup. It didn't happen. Does that make it a failure? Ah, sorta-kinda.

Here's the thing you have to ask yourself- if the Pens would've won the cup, do you resign Hossa? Probably not. You appreciate what he did for you, mourn for what you gave up, and enjoy the Cup. That's the very reason you don't resign him now. He's going to be too expensive. If the Pens sign Hossa, not only did they give up Armstrong and Esposito, they net gave up whoever else they can't sign. Hossa's great, but he's not worth that much to a team who already was averaging just over three goals a game in the regular season.

I tell ya though, if the rumors are true and Hossa really does want to stay in Pittsburgh, go with the "win-now" and offer him a two year contract at like say 10 million total. It's less money than he'd get on the open market, but it's also less time. Hossa will still be commanding huge stacks of cash in two years and if he's serious about winning a Cup with the Pens, he'll take it then move on for the long dough.

2) Ryan Malone

Why you sign him: Fan favorite, MUCH needed physical presence with offensive skills
Why you don't: Might ask more than he's really worth

Malone is great on the Pens. He's got B line (sometimes A line) hands but a big frame and a nose for the net. He doesn't mind standing in front of goalies and he sure as hell can take abuse. Take all that into account and also realize he's a fan favorite and has some family history with the Pens Org.

The only reason I can think of you don't sign him is he asks too much. In the post-lockout NHL, there isn't enough room for guys like Malone. When you compare his salary to the stars of the league who are making around 8-10 million a season, you can't really honestly expect Malone to ask for much more than 3 or 4 million over a relatively short contract. He had a nice playoff and he's still probably not yet lived up to his young potential, but keep in mind he also played for an extremely talented team on one of the most skilled lines in the league. I really hope Ottawa or some other team desperate for a forward with Malone's pedigree doesn't do a redux on the Boston Martin Lapointe contract and pay him a bunch because he really isn't worth it.

3) Marc-Andre Fleury

Why you sign him: One of the best young goaltenders in the game
Why you don't: Big contract, goalies are flaky by nature

The Pens were lucky enough to actually have a 1st round goalie pick work out, they need to make hay while the sun shines and sign this kid. Not signing him, from where I sit, isn't even an option. Fleury is definitely the kind of player that would make you regret signing him when he ends up on another team and wins a Cup in two seasons. It's unusual to see a kid this icy in net at such a young age. Unless he's just asking for insane money, you sign him- he's a cornerstone of your franchise, even more so now that the Pens have committed to "win-now."

4) Jordan Staal

Why you sign him: Big F'in Kid, adds to team toughness, solid defense
Why you don't: Offense?

Staal is a bit of a head scratcher to me. I'm not sure if he's so good on defense that Therrien didn't want to put him on one of the top two lines or if the kid just doesn't have hands at the NHL level. In any case, as he currently sits, he's a valuable part of the Penguins PK and defense.

If Malone walks, signing Staal becomes a priority. If he doesn't, it isn't so much. Throw the kid a 3 or 4 year deal for around 2.5 with some bonuses and see if he bites. If he doesn't, you can find other big third liners for cheaper (probably a few in Wilkes-Barre).

5) Evgeni Malkin

Why you sign him: He's one of the top five players in the league. Period.
Why you don't: Because you want to be fired as GM

Seriously, unless this kid asks for 20 million a year for 13 years or something, there is no reason you don't sign Malkin. Forget the playoffs and remember the way this kid stepped up when Sid went down. Why? Because Sid is going to go down. He plays more physical than his body allows. He's going to get hurt for 10-20 games every year. When that happens, you need somebody to pick up the battle standard and become the new go to guy. That guy is Malkin. How anyone who calls themself a hockey fan can look at this kid and say he isn't worth the money is absolutely nuts. And stop with the Jagr comparisions- this kid is light years away from where Jagr was back in the day.

Honest to God, if you made me a GM and said you can build your team around Crosby or Malkin, I'd take Malkin. That's not a slight to Crosby, I just think this kid has an offensive upside to rival Crosby and one important thing Sid doesn't have- size. Once Malkin figures out he's 6'3 and about 200 pounds and can throw his body around and forecheck as hard as Malone and Staal? The other team's forwards are going to be like Bill Paxton in Aliens: game over, man. The only player in the friggin' league with more upside than this kid is Ovechkin. Don't believe me? Save this post and show it to me in 10 years. We'll see who had the crystal ball.

Hockey.Game_6_SC_Finals_2008

So the Pens lost tonight.

What an effort though, right? Right down to the wire.

I've watched the last four games with my Dad who is a huge Pens fan and a couple of friends from the fantasy league. Every game except for tonight I drank, but I stayed sober for this one because I've sort of been drinking a lot lately and just didn't feel like it.

Figures that tonight would be the night when I come up with one of my best lines of all time. Just after the game ended and Bettman comes trotting out onto the ice, I bust this off-

"With y'all as my witnesses, if I ever contract a terminal illness, which, let's face it, I smoke, so y'know, I swear I will pull a Charles Bronson and assassinate Gary Bettman. 'Cause, what're they gonna do? Send me to jail? I've got a terminal illness, right? What do I care."